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Alliance breakfast presentation looked at global trends, what they mean for B.C.

Nicholas Handcock knew his audience agreed when he stood up at our April Alliance breakfast meeting and suggested that despite the economic volatility of 2025, "there's excitement in this room over energy moving to the centre of everything."

With that, the global customer research lead for Ernst & Young (EY) offered a cautionary piece of advice for the dozens of contractors and consultants gathered at the Surrey, B.C. hotel.

"For many, [the energy transition] is exciting, but complicated," he said. "Whether you're a homeowner, consumer or business owner, it's getting almost overwhelming. Our research shows that consumers are looking for a lot of help from folks like you to figure out how they go on this journey."

Handcock and his EY colleague Sara Ganowski, electrification lead, covered everything from trade wars, supply shortages, to customer frustration over processes, and the advantages B.C. has as a clean energy superpower operating under an ambitious B.C. climate action mandate.

Here are eight key trends drawn from EY's research and studies of the energy landscape.

1. Confusion and slow processes can kill customer buy-in

EY's surveys show that 78% of Canadian businesses are looking to grow their electricity, many have sustainability goals, and two-thirds are looking to invest in electrification. But the road to decarbonization hasn't been as smooth as expected.

"We consistently hear it in our surveys with customers: 'it's too hard, it's too confusing. I got to get permits. You got to talk to like a million different people, and the process takes forever. It costs twice as much as I thought it was going to'."

Handcock stressed that businesses need to know that during economic uncertainty, investing in electrification will give them a competitive advantage. "Make effortless the golden word."

2. Electricity use going from flat to "hockey stick growth"

Due to advances in energy efficiency, household electricity use in Canada declined for five decades. But that's changing.

Handcock shared a projected chart displaying a dramatic estimated increase in electricity spurred on by the rise in electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and data centres through 2050.

"Going forward, you’ll see this hockey stick kind of curve," he said. "It looks like this in almost every developed country. The growth is going to be driven by electrification, by EVs and heat pumps. Commercial and industrial businesses are expected to drive about two thirds of this demand growth."

3. EV industry GDP, employment opportunities to almost triple between 2026 and 2050

Ganowski cited a "hot off the press" EY report, developed with Electric Mobility Canada, that quantifies the economic growth of the EV industry in Canada.

The Electrifying progress study shows a shift away from environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives as the main push for growth in the EV industry. Instead, economic opportunities – including a surge in employment in the sector – are leading the industry's growth. The report estimates that by 2035, close to half of the transportation sector's gross domestic product (GDP) and employment could come from electric mobility initiatives.

Quebec leads the country in EV adoption, with one month in 2024 setting a record of 40% of new vehicles sales. B.C.'s adoption slowed a bit in 2024, but by year's end, 22.4% of new cars sold were zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs).

Nearly 200,000 light-duty ZEVs are now registered in B.C., which boasts more than 7,000 public charging stations. Our charging network tripled in 2024 to 591, as an average of more than one new charging port per day was installed.

The share of ZEVs in B.C. is expected to grow from 10% today to 50% by 2035.

"Wherever there's alignment between federal and provincial policy on EVs, you'll see ZEVs portion of new vehicle sales go up to as high as 30% or 40%," said Ganowski.

4. In a trade war, B.C. is positioned better than other provinces

Handcock said that while almost 90% of Alberta trade goes to the U.S., and the Canadian provincial average is 77%, only about 54% of B.C. trade is south of the border.

"We're relatively lucky because we're a little bit more diversified," says Handcock. "But there are still a lot of items like lumber, minerals, and some of our technology products that go primarily to the United States. So there's still quite a lot of exposure when it comes to tariffs."

5. Tariffs could threaten supply of materials for energy infrastructure

"We hear from clients that it's becoming very difficult to source critical components for grid infrastructure," says Handcock. "They say their lead times are expanding tremendously. 'We didn't put an order in on a switch gear transformer last year, and now we're not going to get it for another three to five years'."

6. Renewables taking a hit in the U.S., but individual states control regulation

EY says that while a slew of environmental regulations, electrification and clean energy incentives are evaporating under Donald Trump, there's no evidence that the energy transition is in peril.

Carbon emissions in the U.S. are expected to rise in the short term, but there's a big question over what will happen in the longer term. States can still fuel the energy transition through their control of regulation, and here in Canada, the path to clean energy and electrification is clearer.

Hancock added that in the recent federal election campaign, most parties said they'd support an east-west energy corridor, and that there's talk of that supply going beyond oil and gas to expanded transmission of electricity.

7. For younger Canadians, there's a gap between sustainability intention and actions

"While there's also a strong interest from our younger generations around sustainability, something we've noticed in our research is there's a gap between intention and sustainability goals and the ability to act on those goals, because of financial concerns," said Ganowski. "So when we're thinking about energy transition, we want to ensure that's just and equitable. We have to ensure that younger people continue to engage in the energy transition."

8. Crypto mining, data centres, and AI are muscling in on energy supply

Hancock and Ganowski were asked why some regions like Ireland embraced powering data centres and crypto mining, while others haven't.

"We're seeing in some regions a pushback against crypto mining, because there's a feeling that it doesn't really create jobs and doesn't bring a lot of local value," said Handcock. "This pushback has come both on the government side and the utility side."

He concluded that the largest demand for data centres is being driven by artificial intelligence (AI), the training needed for those models, and the data centres to host and manage AI.

Did you know? According to the Canadian Climate Institute, while traditional data centres typically draw five to 10 megawatts (MW) of electricity demand, modern AI facilities typically use more than 100 MW – roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of 350,000 electric vehicles.