Forecasting Growth

One of our main challenges in the years ahead is to create enough additional power generation to meet the growing demand. This will require sophisticated forecasting and planning. Electricity demand in British Columbia is forecast to grow by an estimated 1.4% on average over the next 21 years and we will need new electricity supply. Choosing these resources means making difficult decisions—trade-offs between costs, availability, reliability, social considerations and environmental impacts.

BC Hydro uses four major steps in forecasting how much load is expected on the system:

• the initialization of major inputs, including economic forecasts from the public and private sector,
• the development of a reference forecast for the energy needs for B.C.,
• the development of a most probable forecast, and
• a management review and approval of the probable forecast.

The process generates a range of demand forecasts [PDF, 685 Kb] to reflect the outcome of different economic outlooks and uncertainties; explores implications on resources, system and financial requirements; and selects a probable scenario for planning purposes.