Reliability (Supply)
 | | | |||||||||||||||||||||
|
GUIDING PRINCIPLE: We will provide electricity self-sufficiency (energy and capacity) in B.C. to meet all domestic needs. Reliability of supply is achieved by ensuring system operations are managed appropriately, maximizing unit availability and minimizing the number of outages during the winter peak period, reinvesting in generating assets, and incrementally supplying through power acquisitions and Resource Smart projects. These steps are having an impact and we are closing the gap between supply and demand in British Columbia. Ensuring that we have the supply to meet load is a core focus for BC Hydro. When Revelstoke Unit 5 is completed, BC Hydro will have adequate capacity to meet threshold reliability requirements over the winter peak period. Until then, we will meet capacity by relying on contingency resources such as contracted Load Curtailment with large customers and imports to meet peak loads. In fiscal 2009, BC Hydro’s net consolidated electricity purchases for domestic use were 4,602 GWh. Throughout the year, the reliability of generation also impacts the cost of energy to meet domestic load as well as the income that can be earned from trade. Strategies in the 2008/09 to 2010/11 Service Plan: In last year’s Service Plan, we stated we would:
Systems operationsTo ensure a reliable supply of energy and capacity, BC Hydro closely monitors factors such as weather and snowpack forecasts, reservoir levels, customer loads, market conditions and the availability of Heritage and Independent Power Producers (IPPs) generating units to supply power. These studies form the basis of decisions to prioritize operation of specific generating plants, identify necessary contingency resources and set threshold prices for the purchase or sale of energy. Water supply and reservoir storage Generation from BC Hydro’s predominantly hydroelectric system is dependent upon precipitation and reservoir storage. Water inflows into our reservoirs were 96 per cent of average for fiscal 2009. During April 2008, cold temperatures experienced across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest resulted in a delay in the start of the freshet, or spring runoff. The storage flexibility in our largest reservoirs and energy imports supported system energy requirements during this time. By mid-May the freshet began and low market prices for energy allowed BC Hydro to refill reservoirs at competitive prices. During the third and fourth quarter, Columbia River Treaty constraints restricted discharge of water at Mica and BC Hydro purchased about 3,000 GWh of energy to meet domestic load requirements. At the end of fiscal 2009, total reservoir storage was about 1,900 GWh above average and 1,200 GWh (795 GWh after adjustment for non-treaty storage) above the previous year’s storage level. Forecast Supply-Demand Balance for Peak Load BC Hydro plans to be able to meet the peak load using firm resources with a 90 per cent probability of exceedance. In other words, we should have enough firm resources to meet the peak load nine years out of ten. In other years we will rely on non-firm sources to meet capacity constraints. Peak loads typically occur between November 15 and February 15. As the chart below indicates, in the past we would need to rely on sources such as market purchases in the winter months to supply domestic needs, and were short approximately 400-1,000 MW of capacity to meet the forecast peak load.
Customer Load Curtailment Program To acquire additional short-term capacity, and provide more options and operating flexibility for meeting customer peak loads, BC Hydro introduced a Customer Load Curtailment Program in 2007. Fiscal 2009 marked the second year of an expanded Load Curtailment Program with our large customers. BC Hydro successfully conducted a load curtailment event on December 15, 2008 during a period of abnormally cold temperatures and consequent high customer demand.
Generation availability and reliabilityIn addition to the amount of water in our reservoirs, the availability of generating facilities contributes to our ability to meet customer demand. Availability reflects the percentage of time a generating unit is in commercial service and available to produce energy. Unit Reliability refers to the frequency that generating equipment encounter unplanned outages. Winter generation availability The Winter Generation Availability Factor (WGAF) tracks generation availability between the period of November 15 to February 15, when customer demand is most likely to reach its annual peak. Fiscal 2009 WGAF was better than target at 96.4 per cent. This measure was at significant risk due to outages at Kootenay Canal to accommodate BCTC capital work, the GM Shrum Unit 3 outage, and several short duration outages to improve equipment reliability. Several plants achieved 100 per cent availability over the winter period including Peace Canyon, Seven Mile, Bridge River 2, Cheakamus, Clowhom, Stave Falls, Jordan River, Puntledge and Lajoie generating stations. Winter Generation Availability Factor
In November 2008, BC Hydro returned the sixth unit at Burrard Thermal Generating Station to service for the first time since 2003. The Burrard facility is a cost-effective source of generating capacity, located close to our largest load centre, and provides additional voltage regulation benefits. Generation reliability Seven key hydro facilities account for approximately 80 per cent of BC Hydro’s generation capacity, and BC Hydro also measures performance through the number of forced outages experienced by each generating unit. In fiscal 2009, key facilities experienced 1.9 outages per generating unit, out-performing the target of 2.2. A major failure of the GM Shrum Unit 3 turbine in March 2008 resulted in the unit being forced out of service throughout fiscal 2009. Repairs to the turbine and associated components were undertaken on an urgent basis, and the unit was returned to service in May 2009 following an innovative repair solution. Capital investment in generating assetsBC Hydro is reinvesting in its Heritage generating facilities to improve the reliability of supply and provide incremental increases to BC Hydro’s energy and capacity supply. BC Hydro’s capital expenditure on generation assets has been increasing steadily since fiscal 2001. Capital investment including both Sustaining and Growth capital has grown from $90 million in fiscal 2001 to $365 million in fiscal 2009. This will continue over the next five years – and likely beyond – as a number of major projects move into the expenditure-intensive implementation phase. For more information, please see list of our current capital projects. Sustaining capital Many of BC Hydro’s largest dams and power-generating facilities were constructed in the late 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s, and many smaller facilities have been in operation for even longer. While BC Hydro has maintained these facilities through focused and effective maintenance programs, many assets require major upgrades, refurbishment or replacement to continue to provide British Columbia with reliable electricity. BC Hydro has developed a Strategic Asset Management Plan, including facility Asset Plans that detail the overall investment strategy for each facility, taking into account the facility role, issues, performance targets, risks and growth opportunities. As a result, in the past few years, BC Hydro has seen an improvement in the health of our assets. BC Hydro employs a life-cycle approach to asset management, designed to maximize the economic return on physical assets over their life, while at the same time managing the risks inherent in owning, managing and operating a large and aging fleet of generation assets.
Resource Smart and growth projects The Resource Smart Program provides additional electricity to the BC Hydro system by upgrading, with generally low or no incremental environmental impact, existing generating facilities. Since its inception in the late 1980s, this program has added almost 1,300 GWh of annual production. In fiscal 2009, the first of three generating units at the redeveloped Aberfeldie Generating Station was placed in service. The new 24 MW facility replaced the 5 MW plant built in 1922. The final two units were placed in service in May 2009. Other active Resource Smart projects include the installation of a fifth generating unit at Revelstoke and the upgrade of the Fort Nelson Generating Station. Site C Site C is a potential third dam and hydroelectric generating station on the Peace River, and is one of several potential resource options being considered to help meet British Columbia’s future electricity needs. The BC Energy Plan called for BC Hydro and the Province to consult with First Nations, communities, and the Province of Alberta on the potential project. BC Hydro is taking a stage-by-stage approach to the evaluation of Site C. Work during Stage 2, Project Definition and Consultation, involved extensive consultation, as well as project engineering, environmental studies and other technical reviews. If built, Site C would provide a clean and renewable source of electricity for more than 100 years. Site C would also have impacts relating to land, roads and bridges, fish, wildlife and community services. From December 2007 to December 2008, BC Hydro conducted three rounds of public and stakeholder consultation, starting with pre-consultation to determine how people want to be consulted and on what topics. Two rounds of public consultation followed covering a range of environmental and engineering design topics. First Nations consultation is also underway directly with aboriginal groups that may be impacted. In addition, a specific consultation and program was established for property owners in the region. Discussions with the Province of Alberta and Northwest Territories have been led by the Province. BC Hydro will make a recommendation for government decision in fall 2009 on whether to proceed to Stage 3 of the potential project, which would involve regulatory reviews. BC Hydro will also issue a public report highlighting key findings during Stage 2. Independent Power ProducersBC Hydro’s long-term strategy includes buying energy. This electricity procurement plays a critical role in reaching the BC Energy Plan’s objective of achieving electricity self sufficiency by 2016, as well as meeting the B.C. Government’s policy actions for maintaining competitive rates, clean or renewable electricity and the development of a vibrant and competitive IPP sector. During fiscal 2009, BC Hydro made considerable progress in advancing three competitive call processes for Independent Power Producers – the Standing Offer Program, Bioenergy Call and Clean Power Call. The Standing Offer Program was launched in April 2008 following the receipt of regulatory approval. This program offers a fixed energy price and streamlined acquisition process for clean, renewable or high-efficiency cogeneration electricity projects with a capacity greater than 50 kW up to 10 MW. To date, BC Hydro has received 12 applications under the Standing Offer Program for a total of approximately 220 GWh per year of energy. In February 2009, BC Hydro filed its first executed Electricity Purchase Agreement (EPA) with the BCUC for regulatory acceptance. The Bioenergy Call is a two-phase call for power to use wood infected by the mountain pine beetle as well as other biomass sources. For the Phase I Request for Proposals (RFP), BC Hydro received proposals for 20 projects from 13 proponents in June 2008. Four EPAs were awarded in November 2008 for 579 GWh/year of firm energy. The awarded contracts had been filed with the BCUC for regulatory acceptance pursuant to section 71 of the Utilities Commission Act. In March 2009, BC Hydro announced the launch of the second phase of the Bioenergy Call. Phase II is being conducted as a two-stream process with the first stream targeting larger-scale biomass projects and the second phase focusing on smaller-scale innovative, community-level energy supply solutions using biomass. BC Hydro expects to receive proposals under both Phase II streams during the fall of 2009 with final project selection targeted to occur in early 2010. The final terms for the Clean Power Call RFP were issued in June 2008. Under the RFP, BC Hydro is targeting to purchase approximately 3,000 GWh per year of clean or renewable energy from larger projects using proven technologies, such as hydro, wind, solar and geothermal energy. In late November 2008, 68 proposals were received from 43 proponents representing over 17,000 GWh/year of firm energy. BC Hydro plans make its Clean Power Call EPA awards in mid-2009 once it receives the BCUC’s decision regarding the 2008 Long Term Acquisition Plan (LTAP). This performance measure gauges the reliability of our hydro generation fleet over the critical winter peak period when demand is greatest due to cold weather. Units become unavailable during this time primarily due to unexpected forced outages as well as scheduled outages required to maintain them. This measure drives the need for us to complete all major maintenance in the non-critical period and to minimize outages during the critical peak periods. BC Hydro has reduced its energy supply risk during the period when customer demand is at its peak. In the past, typically we would need to rely on market purchases and other contingency resources in the winter months to ensure adequate capacity was available to meet forecast peak domestic loads. The chart provides a distribution of probable peak loads for the last three years and for next winter. In previous years, BC Hydro had a forecast capacity deficit of approximately 400 to 1,000 MW at the 90th percentile confidence level. This past winter (2008/09) passed without any major system capacity constraints. The peak load for this past winter (10,011 MW) occurred on Dec 19, 2008. Despite colder than design temperatures, the system load was well below the forecast expected value (10,370 MW) due to the economic downturn. Under these conditions, and running half of Burrard, the system showed a net surplus of approx 260 MW on the peak load hour. Had the actual load been as high as or higher than the design value, the system would have required additional Burrard units or the use of contingency resources. |
Shawna McMillan, Engineer in Training, standing on the Mica Dam in May 2008. Photo credit: Glenn Erho, Engineering Technologist Project Specialist
Photo credit: Coleman Mercereau, CPC Technologist Foreman, Northern Operations. GM Shrum Generating Station.
Graham Fenwick, Engineering Division Manager and the 2008 winner of The BC Hydro Award of Distinction in Safety, in memory of Don McEwen. “Graham integrates safety into everything he does on the Revelstoke Unit 5 project. His passion for safety inspires and encourages everyone around him to ensure that safety is the highest priority,” said Ken McKenzie, BC Hydro project manager, Revelstoke Unit 5, on nominating Graham.Last Modified: Nov 30, 2010
